BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Ohio has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

16×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Ohio: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Ohio is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.3–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Ohio is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.3–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.52.04.9
20263.52.15.0
20273.62.25.1
20283.72.25.1
20293.82.35.2

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Omega6120241974
Herner Crns5120241984
Shawnee S.F. 23520132013
Rome2020242000
Bismark1419711971
Lucerne1120241999
Stonecreek620242002
Ash Ridge520122012
Birmingham420241988
South Olive420142013
Darrtown419661966
Keene420231995
N Baltimore320182010
Tar Hollow320172007
Kalida320172017
Marion320232018
Meadowbrook320212014
Maysville320101993
Scioto Furn319971997
Norwalk319991982
Kunkle220082008
Pittsfield220242009
Ashley220071988
Middlefield219911991
Lenox219711967

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.