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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Ohio has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

15×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Ohio: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Ohio is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.4–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Ohio is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.4–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.15.0
20273.62.25.0
20283.72.25.1
20293.82.35.2
20303.82.45.3

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Herner Crns7320251984
Omega6120241974
Shawnee S.F. 23520132013
Bismark1419711971
Lucerne1120241999
Lattasburg1020251992
Rome1020252000
Fulton820252021
Mohican S.F.620252016
Ash Ridge520122012
Birmingham420241988
South Olive420142013
Darrtown419661966
Keene420231995
Marion 2320252025
N Baltimore320182010
Tar Hollow320172007
Stonecreek320252002
Kalida320172017
Marion320232018
Meadowbrook320212014
Maysville320101993
Scioto Furn319971997
Norwalk319991982
Kunkle220082008

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.