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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Minnesota has surged: up 279% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+279%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Minnesota: up 279% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 103% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 4.0–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+103%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 103% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 4.0–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026333.962
2027333.962
2028334.062
2029334.062
2030334.062

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oklee17820211969
Erie15420171976
Wylie13720241969
Beltrami12720251973
Caledonia12620102007
Lockhart8720251993
Appleton8520251978
Whitewater 28420192011
Edwards7220241975
Le Roy7120251993
Arlington6620251977
Huntley4720251967
Millville4420251968
Big Stone4420121995
Money Creek4220251989
Glyndon3920251978
Chokio3320251981
Lake Bronson3320111978
Sherburne Nr3220241990
Osseo2920251967
Chandler2820251974
Fairmont2420251993
Whitewater2219981994
Waskish2020251978
Knapp1820251988

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.