BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Minnesota has surged: up 292% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+292%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Minnesota: up 292% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 5.5–63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 5.5–63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025345.263
2026345.363
2027345.363
2028345.463
2029345.563

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lockhart25020241993
Millville22720191968
Oklee17820211969
Beltrami16520241973
Erie15420171976
Wylie13720241969
Tyler13720241995
Caledonia12620102007
Appleton9920241978
Whitewater 28420192011
Chokio8020241981
Edwards7220241975
Chatfield 26820242003
St Stephen6120161975
Glyndon5920241978
Money Creek5820241989
Dawson5020241978
Big Stone4420121995
Chandler4220231974
Huntley4020241967
Waskish4020241978
Le Roy3820241993
Ash Creek3420241983
Lake Bronson3320111978
Sherburne Nr3220241990

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.