BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Louisiana has surged: up 39× on the route-weighted index since 1994.

39×Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Louisiana: up 39× on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026141117
2027141118
2028151218
2029151219
2030161219

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
River Road11120252003
Woodlawn11120212008
Richard6220252023
Natchez6120251993
Plettenberg6020222009
Transylvania4520252007
Esther4120252000
Zwolle4120161998
Forked Island4120252008
Cheniere4020252017
Brousville3420252013
Tensas Nwr3020062006
Mayflower3020252011
Ramah2920252012
Rayville 22720252018
Mer Rouge2520082002
Shaw2320242006
Morgan City2020222011
Forked Island 21920112010
Hackberry1820142004
Derry 21720251995
Port Allen1520242006
Flat Creek1520252010
Hackberry 21520182018
Kaplan1420232011

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.