BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Missouri has surged: up 137× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

137×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Missouri: up 137× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Missouri is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 14–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Missouri is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 14–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201227
2027201328
2028211328
2029211429
2030221429

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Queen City18020222017
Barnard11820192002
New Point11720251994
Cp Girardeau9820251993
Luray9420252015
Blodgett8620252013
Trenton7620252004
Lucerne7120252016
Gerald5420252013
Filley4720251987
Cascade4620252005
Rensselaer4320252004
New Hampton4220252016
Whitewater3820252002
Crane3620251998
Centertown3520252004
Elmo3520252016
Watson3320252002
Frankford3020252011
Eugene2920252015
Moselle2920242000
Ohio2520251984
Frazier2520222009
Stet2419881974
Williamsvill2420192018

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.