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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Arkansas has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

18×Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Arkansas: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Arkansas is projected to rise about 144% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 2.7–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+144%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Arkansas is projected to rise about 144% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 2.7–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.72.113
20267.92.213
20278.02.414
20288.22.614
20298.42.714

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gillett6120162010
England4720242011
Massard4220221998
Yellville2620222022
Hughes2520232010
Stamps2420162016
South Bend2120232008
Augusta 22020162006
Coal Hill1720231986
Wilson1720242021
Rupert1220211990
Augusta1120011998
Crowley'S Ridge920242012
Farwell820182017
Dell820242024
Springhill820132010
Old Milo720142014
Stark720121968
Ravenden Springs720152011
Eudora620242008
Russell620212010
Nance520241995
Maynard420241999
Stephens420162016
Crows319811981

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.