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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Arkansas has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

14×Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Arkansas: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Arkansas is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 2.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Arkansas is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 2.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.72.113
20277.92.313
20288.02.514
20298.22.614
20308.42.814

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard7920251999
Massard4220221998
Stamps2420162016
South Bend2120232008
Yellville2020252022
Gillett2020252010
Augusta 22020162006
Coal Hill1720231986
Rupert1220211990
England1220252011
Wilson1220252021
Eudora1120252008
Augusta1120011998
Farwell820182017
Dell820242024
Springhill820132010
Old Milo720142014
Stark720121968
Ravenden Springs720152011
Russell620212010
Crowley'S Ridge420252012
Stephens420162016
Nance420251995
Hughes320252010
Crows319811981

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.