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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Utah has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Utah. See the full index history below.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Utah is projected to rise about 235% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 6.3–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+235%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±171.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Utah is projected to rise about 235% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 6.3–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025225.639
2026235.839
2027235.940
2028236.140
2029236.340

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear River20520231992
Randolph17320241992
Wellington14320022002
Leamington13020171992
Hardware Ranch9220181994
Lynn8620231982
Wellington 36820242012
Beck6019871968
Hill Creek5319951993
Oak City5120231972
Fayette5020091994
Lost Cr. Res5020151997
Saleratus Cr4720181995
Hyrum4519791975
Promontory4420241969
Gooseberry4220241999
Crawford Mts4020152002
Goshen3120231976
Beryl3020172017
Neponset Res3020181995
Kamas2820241997
Boulder2620211968
Logan Canyon2020191997
Altonah1820151975
Hanna1820241997

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.