BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Arizona has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Arizona is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Arizona is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.30.0020
20269.30.0020
20279.30.0020
20289.30.0020
20299.30.0020

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sunizona 210020172014
Dateland6620241991
Cactus Forest4820241991
Laguna4220231968
Casa Grande3620231989
Cutter 23320182015
Florence3019761968
Vicksburg2419891989
Cibola Lake1520241993
Mormon Lake1419711971
New River1320161991
Carr Mtn1220241986
Blue1019891974
Coolidge1019851974
Willow Beach 2920192017
Hope 2820192014
Seligman720171991
Skull Valley620241996
Amado620182009
The Gap419731969
Palo Verde420131992
Araby420231992
Palo Verde 2320242014
Hunt220171976
Sunizona219881988

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.