BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vaux's Swift Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Vaux's Swift in Oregon has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Vaux's Swift Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vaux's Swift in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Vaux's Swift Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Vaux's Swift in Oregon is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.12–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.78Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vaux's Swift in Oregon is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.12–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.770.111.4
20260.770.111.4
20270.770.111.4
20280.770.121.4
20290.780.121.4

Vaux's Swift Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Vaux's Swift in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Badger Creek2120241994
Winberry1920001969
Twickenham1020122012
Eagle Rock819711971
Camp Sherman819941972
Bridgeport719991995
Wickiup620221971
Barnes Val619871987
Unity620041992
Derby519931968
Mt Hood520231978
Ochoco520221993
Donnelly520052005
Ochoco419821974
Dayton420241974
Garfield420191977
Elkton420231972
Davis Lake420232006
Troy420241994
Blue River420131992
Black Mtn.420041993
Eagle Creek420221996
Sandy River420041993
Molalla420191998
Bull Run420242007

Vaux's Swift Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaidahomontanawashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.