BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Oregon has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Oregon is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Oregon is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.60.009.2
20274.40.009.1
20284.30.009.0
20294.10.008.8
20304.00.008.7

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wedderburn6520251970
Adair6120251971
Elkton4720251974
Svensen4419921990
Nicolai Mtn.4420251993
Mcminnville3220251994
Salem3020251993
Princeton2719851972
Modoc Point 22620252024
Coquille2520251994
Umatilla2420251988
Glasgow2420251986
Ordnance2219791971
Sparta2220251971
Winberry2120231970
Hauser1719851970
Zumwalt1720051995
Hazel Camp1620221975
Blitzen 21520121994
Pendleton1420251972
Montague1320251974
Trout Creek1220251996
Umpqua1020251968
Emigrant Lake 21020252002
Madras1020251999

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.