BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Oregon has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Oregon is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Oregon is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.60.009.3
20264.50.009.2
20274.30.009.1
20284.20.008.9
20294.10.008.8

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Umatilla20120231988
Nicolai Mtn.7620241993
Glasgow5520241986
Coquille5320241994
Adair5120241971
Wedderburn4520241970
Svensen4419921990
Salem2820241993
Princeton2719851972
Canby2420241993
Ordnance2219791971
Winberry2120231970
Mcminnville2120241994
Hauser1719851970
Sparta1720011971
Green1720241994
Zumwalt1720051995
Hazel Camp1620221975
Blitzen 21520121994
Garfield1320231973
Madras1220241999
Crane1020241993
Derby919931968
Modoc Point920181969
Dayton920241973

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.