BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Utah has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has risen sharply in Utah: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Utah is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Utah is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.60.0010
20263.50.0010
20273.50.0010
20283.50.0010
20293.40.0010

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newcastle3320221997
Bear River3220231992
Kamas2620241997
Delta2220241987
Wellington2120011997
Randolph1820241992
Timpie Spg1520031978
Goshen1420241968
Callao1020241992
Promontory820241969
Dragerton820221988
Fayette820211993
Hanna720241997
Neponset Res720161996
Wellington 3620242012
Beaver620241968
Altonah520151974
Oak City520241972
Aneth520241986
Ant Flat-Ogden Can520231994
Uintah Nf519901987
Leamington520171992
Grantsville520242001
Wellington 2520112003
Beck419871982

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.