BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Utah has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Utah. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Utah is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–10.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–10.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Utah is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–10.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.50.0010
20273.50.0010
20283.40.0010
20293.40.0010
20303.40.0010.0

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kamas4020251997
Alton 22920252021
Wellington2120011997
Delta1720251987
Promontory1620251969
Timpie Spg1520031978
Bear River1520251992
Snowville920252004
Callao820251992
Fayette820211993
Moquith Mtn720251996
Hanna720241997
Neponset Res720161996
Wellington 3620242012
Goshen620251968
Altonah520151974
Oak City520241972
Beaver520251968
Aneth520241986
Uintah Nf519901987
Leamington520171992
Wellington 2520112003
Beck419871982
Lynn420251982
Jensen420181992

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.