BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Nebraska has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 12–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 12–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211229
2026211229
2027201229
2028201229
2029201229

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty7020031967
Sparta6720211967
Murray Lake4820241987
Tilden4820242019
Lyons4820242018
Liberty 24820072004
Johnson4720241967
Oconto4619811968
Hampton4120242018
Gretna 24020242019
Petersburg3620231969
Johnstown3420241967
Surprise3320241967
Chambers3220232023
Berwyn3120101993
Sargent2920242021
Wheeler Co2620241978
Eagle Creek2520241967
Winside 22520222005
Richland2320241968
Hendley2320242018
Ponca2220242018
Berwyn 22220212014
Kearney2120241968
Gordon2120241975

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.