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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Nebraska has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 20 (95% range 12–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 20 (95% range 12–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201229
2027201229
2028201229
2029201229
2030201229

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty7020031967
Surprise6020251967
Johnstown6020251967
Tilden5720252019
Johnson5520251967
Brownlee5220251990
Liberty 24820072004
Oconto4619811968
Sparta4620251967
Madison4520252018
Gordon4020251975
Murray Lake3820251987
Petersburg3520251969
Wheeler Co3520251978
Crescent Lk3420251980
Gretna 23320252019
Brady3120251980
Berwyn3120101993
Hampton2820252018
Sumner2620251967
Richland2620251968
Winside 22520222005
Lyons2220252018
Kenesaw2120251967
Crawford2120251981

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.