BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Indiana has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 22 (95% range 16–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 22 (95% range 16–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211627
2026211627
2027221627
2028221627
2029221627

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ellis7920241966
Celestine7320241979
Brookville6820241966
Sexton6420241981
Packertown6020041967
Lagrange4520241999
Middlebury4420241989
Fowler4220241966
New Phila3820241982
Spencer3620241967
Jamestown3520241986
Witts Station3520242000
Cumback3420211966
Lakeville3420241993
Decatur3120241999
Newberry3120241999
Packertown 23020242005
Indian Spgs2920241982
Cyprss2820241999
Washington2520241987
Cross Plains2520241999
Laporte2420241999
Brazil2220241966
Rensselaer2120241999
W Lafayette2020241981

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.