BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Indiana has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 22 (95% range 17–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 22 (95% range 17–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221627
2027221627
2028221627
2029221627
2030221727

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Witts Station12220252000
Ellis7920241966
Brookville7920251966
Celestine7420251979
Sexton6420241981
Packertown6020041967
New Phila5820251982
Knox4720251981
Cyprss4220251999
Newberry4120251999
Shelbyville3920251983
Thorntown3820251982
Middlebury3720251989
Jamestown3720251986
Spencer3620241967
Cuba3620252017
Georgia3420251999
Lakeville3420241993
Packertown 23320252005
Cumback3120251966
Vevay2820251966
New Brunswick2420252024
Laporte2420241999
Washington2320251987
Decatur2220251999

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.