BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Nevada has surged: up 358% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+358%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Nevada: up 358% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.8 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.8 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.80.008.5
20272.80.008.6
20282.80.008.6
20292.80.008.6
20302.80.008.6

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carson River1820052001
Gardnerville 21820252013
Ruby Valley 21220242004
Toiyabe Nf1120241987
Calico Spr1019741972
Virgin Creek1020181995
Gardnerville920121992
Minerva920221989
Oreana920032002
Majors Place820251968
Fallon820251992
Chimney Res.620252005
Ranchogrande520151990
Sand Pass420181987
Cortez420251968
Hiko420231972
Jarbidge420132006
Nixon420251975
Humboldt Nf 2420252022
Dinner Sta319911968
Comins Lake320092006
Walker Can220231982
Humboldt Nf220151994
Illipah220211971
Dobbin Creek220091971

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.