BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Ohio has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Ohio: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 24 (95% range 17–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 24 (95% range 17–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026231630
2027231630
2028231630
2029231730
2030241730

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Somerset10019931966
Maysville9320121992
Lucerne7220251992
Wilmington7219961966
Vickery6720251996
Coal Run5719921966
Marion 25620252024
Lattasburg5520251966
Garrettsvile5419911966
Lockport4720251966
Stonecreek4720251996
Omega4620241966
Norwalk4220241979
Napoleon4020251966
Kings Creek4020151992
Ash Ridge4020211992
Baxter Ridge3820251998
New Dover3720221966
Cosmos3620191966
Kunkle3520251992
Newport3519941966
Rome3320251966
Dresden3220251966
W Carrollton3220151989
Bismark3019951967

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.