BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Ohio has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has risen sharply in Ohio: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 16–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 16–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025231630
2026231630
2027231630
2028231630
2029231630

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Somerset10019931966
Maysville9320121992
Wilmington7219961966
Lucerne7120241992
Valley City6520241995
Stonecreek6220241996
Lattasburg5820241966
Coal Run5719921966
Garrettsvile5419911966
Marion 25020242024
Kunkle4920241992
Harveysburg 24920241997
Omega4620241966
Norwalk4220241979
Kings Creek4020151992
Ash Ridge4020211992
New Dover3720221966
Lockport3620241966
Cosmos3620191966
Newport3519941966
Hiram3420211992
Napoleon3220241966
Kenton3220241966
W Carrollton3220151989
Bismark3019951967

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.