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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Tennessee has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Tennessee is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 12–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Tennessee is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 12–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201228
2026201227
2027201227
2028201227
2029201227

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Climer12620041967
Campbellsville6220191966
Jones Gap6120191982
Pawpaw5520121966
Petersburg4920191966
White House4820191966
Collinwood4620241966
Glen4220241966
Tullahoma4120151967
Whiteville3920241966
Allens Brdge3820231966
Mansfield3620241966
Humboldt3420241966
Mt Olive3320191966
Bradyville3020211966
Jefferson Cty3020111966
Silerton2920241966
Big Sandy2820241966
Wrigley2820221966
Pawpaw 22520232013
Brownsville2420241966
Signal Mtn2020241979
Jasper1820241967
Corryton Rd1820191966
Lovell1620191966

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.