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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Tennessee has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 19 (95% range 12–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 19 (95% range 12–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201227
2027201227
2028201227
2029201227
2030191227

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Climer12620041967
Humboldt10020251966
Whiteville7420251966
Campbellsville6220191966
Jones Gap6120191982
Pawpaw5520121966
Petersburg4920191966
White House4820191966
Tullahoma4120151967
Allens Brdge3820231966
Glen3320251966
Mt Olive3320191966
Mansfield3220251966
Collinwood3220251966
Bradyville3020211966
Jefferson Cty3020111966
Silerton2920241966
Wrigley2820221966
Pawpaw 22520252013
Big Sandy2420251966
Peytonsville2220251966
Corryton Rd1820191966
Lovell1620191966
Walland1619891966
Smokey Jct1420221966

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.