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Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Wyoming has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+90%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Wyoming: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 0.80–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 0.80–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.70.856.6
20263.70.846.6
20273.70.836.6
20283.70.816.6
20293.70.806.5

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Basin5020241970
Dwyer3520191992
Rock River3520221993
Midvale2920241974
Otto2820241970
Natrona1719921968
Gas Hills 21720242014
Lusk1520241982
Clarkelen1419781968
Upton1420241987
Kaycee1420242014
Ethete1220241991
Meadowdale1120191983
Elk Horn1020181988
Bear Creek1020151988
Seely1020001990
Riverview1020221982
Rozet1020231993
Dayton920241980
Gebo920241983
Bill820181974
Frannie820241989
Meeteetse820241991
Yoder720241968
Newcastle720241988

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.