BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Wyoming has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+87%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Wyoming: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 0.80–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 0.80–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.70.856.5
20273.70.846.5
20283.70.836.5
20293.70.816.5
20303.60.806.5

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Otto4220251970
Basin4120251970
Rock River3520221993
Kaycee2720252014
Natrona1719921968
Gas Hills 21620252014
Newcastle1520251988
Rozet1520251993
Clarkelen1419781968
Yoder1420251968
Leo1320251982
Elk Horn1020181988
Bear Creek1020151988
Seely1020001990
Upton1020251987
Sweetwater1020251980
Riverview920251982
Cody820251983
Bill820181974
Dwyer820251992
Fontenelle720251982
Ethete720251991
Chugwater720241979
Flamin Gorge720251988
Midvale620251974

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.