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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Minnesota has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 5.6–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 5.6–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026155.924
2027155.824
2028155.723
2029155.723
2030145.623

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Worthington4720252004
Tyler4520251993
Oklee4420211969
Maynard4220151967
St Stephen3920251967
Tracy3720252004
Huntley3620251967
Courtland3620251978
Ash Creek3520251975
Wigwam Bay3520231967
Millville3420251967
Arlington3420251967
Appleton3220251978
Le Center3220251993
Big Stone3220121995
Money Creek3020251967
Edwards3020241973
Bagley3020061995
Caledonia 22820252013
Chokio2620251970
Chatfield 22620252003
Fairmont2520251993
Glenwood2520191993
Chandler2420251969
Gluek2420191967

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.