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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Minnesota has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-5%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 5.6–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 5.6–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025155.924
2026155.824
2027155.724
2028155.724
2029155.623

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Appleton5620241978
St Stephen4620161967
Chokio4620241970
Oklee4420211969
Maynard4220151967
Le Center4120231993
Tracy3720242004
Wigwam Bay3520231967
Courtland3320241978
Tyler3320241993
Chandler3220231969
Big Stone3220121995
Arlington3120241967
Millville3020191967
Edwards3020241973
Bagley3020061995
Worthington2920242004
Glenwood2520191993
Gluek2420191967
Evergreen2320241967
New London2320241994
Hartland1920171967
Redwood Fall1920241978
Osseo1920241967
Brainerd1920241993

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.