BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Michigan has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Michigan is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 9.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 3.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Michigan is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 9.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 3.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.73.614
20278.53.414
20288.33.313
20298.23.113
20308.03.013

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Drayton Plns5619871973
Owendale5520171978
Lapeer5320252000
Waldenburg3920171968
Richmond3320241999
Hamburg 23320252004
Holt3220251969
North Branch3219991974
Coopersville3020251979
Adrian3020181966
Adair3019951974
Bell Oak 22820252016
Maple Rapids2720251987
Cedar Run2719991994
S Lyons2619921966
Belding 22520252004
St Charles2420191967
Ola2420251974
Bell Oak2420141966
Hamburg2320011981
Homer2220241975
Prattville2020211967
Big Rapids1919901967
New Troy1720241971
Juniata1720241966

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.