BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Michigan has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Michigan is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 3.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Michigan is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 3.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.83.714
20268.63.514
20278.53.314
20288.33.213
20298.23.013

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lapeer7920242000
Drayton Plns5619871973
Owendale5520171978
Holt4220241969
Waldenburg3920171968
Richmond3320241999
North Branch3219991974
Adrian3020181966
Adair3019951974
Bell Oak 23020232016
Howardsville2920241969
Coopersville2820241979
Cedar Run2719991994
S Lyons2619921966
St Charles2420191967
Bell Oak2420141966
Hamburg2320011981
Ola2220241974
Homer2220241975
Nashville2120241968
Prattville2020211967
Big Rapids1919901967
New Troy1720241971
Juniata1720241966
Tyre1619961967

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.