BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in North Carolina has surged: up 175% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+175%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in North Carolina: up 175% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in North Carolina is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 7.9–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in North Carolina is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 7.9–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026157.622
2027157.722
2028157.822
2029157.822
2030157.922

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Barn Swallow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wards Corner14920241969
Speed6120251966
Cypress Cr5020221990
Pinelog4020252001
Genoa3620251990
Dortches3120251990
Oakboro3020251969
California2920131972
Sturgills2920252001
Shallotte2719911966
Mashoes2619821971
Cypress Lakes2620252004
Waco2520231989
Cullowhee2420251974
Mooresville2320011966
Myrtle Grove2220251966
Mcginnis Crossroad2220132009
Arcola2120251971
Jamesville2120251983
Belgrade2120192002
Flay1920251990
Montague1720251992
Lake Surf1720251998
Jarvisburg 21720222000
Merrimon1620231968

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.