BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in North Carolina has surged: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+186%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in North Carolina: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in North Carolina is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 8.1–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in North Carolina is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 8.1–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025157.822
2026157.822
2027157.922
2028158.022
2029158.122

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Barn Swallow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wards Corner14920241969
Cypress Cr5020221990
Speed4220241966
Genoa4020241990
Oakboro3220241969
California2920131972
Pinelog2920242001
Congleton2820242001
Shallotte2719911966
Jamesville2720241983
Todd2720231995
Myrtle Grove2620241966
Mashoes2619821971
Arcola2520241971
Waco2520231989
Linville2420241976
Mooresville2320011966
Mcginnis Crossroad2220132009
Montague2120241992
Siloam2120242005
Jones Corner2120241994
Belgrade2120192002
Cullowhee2020241974
California 22020242014
Dortches1920241990

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.