BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in North Dakota has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 5.7–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 5.7–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026176.127
2027176.027
2028175.927
2029165.827
2030165.727

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Barn Swallow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lakota 24720252010
Sydney3519831967
Parshall3420131982
Forman3020251968
Nash2920171980
Edgeley2420251980
Abercrombie2220121968
Kempton2120171967
Niles2120251989
Solen1920252005
Rolla1820241969
Sheyenne Lk1720251980
Emerado1620251973
Carpio1620231967
Cedar Creek1520221968
Wimbledon1320251981
Horsehead Lk1320251980
Webster1320241989
Cooperstown1220251969
Ft Yates1220041968
Regan1120251968
Danzig 21120252019
Danzig1020141982
Buchanan1020251967
Denbigh1020251968

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.