BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in North Dakota has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 6.3–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 6.3–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025176.628
2026176.528
2027176.428
2028176.328
2029176.328

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Barn Swallow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sydney3519831967
Parshall3420131982
Nash2920171980
Lakota 22920242010
Edgeley2420241980
Sheyenne Lk2320241980
Abercrombie2220121968
Kempton2120171967
Wimbledon1820241981
Rolla1820241969
Stanley1820241967
Emerado1720241973
Horsehead Lk1720241980
Carpio1620231967
Gorham1520181968
Cedar Creek1520221968
Niles1420241989
Danzig 21420242019
Lake George1320221967
Webster1320241989
Denbigh1320241968
Turtle Mtns1320241980
Forman1220241968
Ft Yates1220041968
Solen1120242005

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.