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Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Georgia

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Georgia has surged: up 43× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

43×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Georgia: up 43× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Georgia is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 14–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Georgia is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 14–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161320
2026161320
2027171320
2028171320
2029171421

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Davis Crossroads8120212011
Cartersville7120241966
Metasville7020001997
Henderson6220241976
Shiloh5320242012
Newton5220241976
Cotton4620241975
Owensboro4220242010
Tazewell3820241978
Finleyson3820241976
Rutledge3720241975
Maxeys3620241975
Weber3320242014
Oakman2720241966
Ball Ground2520212019
Union2520232011
Rock Branch2520242005
Hawkinsville2420241976
Linwood2420231970
Hebron2320222005
Vidalia2220241995
Baxley2120191983
Lincolnton2120171966
Amos Mill2120222011
Fairplay2019911978

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.