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Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Georgia

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Georgia has surged: up 41× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

41×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Georgia: up 41× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Georgia is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Georgia is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161220
2027161320
2028171320
2029171320
2030171321

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Metasville7020001997
Shiloh6620252012
Owensboro3920252010
Maxeys3620241975
Ousley3520252015
Cotton3320251975
Nashville3120251979
Cuthbert2720251980
Oakman2720241966
Bowdon2620251976
Fitzgerald2520251983
Newton2520251976
Davis Crossroads2520252011
Hawkinsville2420241976
Linwood2420231970
Bethany2420252012
Dover2320252006
Hebron2320222005
Weber2220252014
Baxley2120191983
Lincolnton2120171966
Amos Mill2120222011
Stockton2020251991
Fairplay2019911978
Vidalia2020251995

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.