BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Arkansas has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Arkansas: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Arkansas is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 9.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 4.9–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Arkansas is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 9.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 4.9–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025144.924
2026144.924
2027144.924
2028144.924
2029144.924

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell6420182010
Maynard6020241967
Saffell4020191967
Wilson4020241993
England3520242010
Havana3120212010
Stark2820241967
Kelso2620162010
Augusta 22520162002
Ashdown2320231967
Coal Hill1620231967
Avoca1620241967
Centerton1520242010
Hughes1420231967
Poyen1420071967
Whitton1319911967
Fulton1320241967
Dell1320242010
Blakely1219991968
Augusta1220011967
Stamps1020241967
Eudora920241970
Crows819911967
Hollywood720221972
Crowley'S Ridge720242011

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.