BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in New Mexico has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-14%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.1 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.1 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.40.038.7
20274.30.008.6
20284.20.008.6
20294.20.008.5
20304.10.008.5

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Barn Swallow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesilla11220001992
Rosebud8820251994
Tucumcari4919751975
San Antonio3819771974
Farmington3719871975
Capulin2019941993
Cooley Lake1920251968
Clovis1820241993
La Plata1820131990
Valencia1619971968
Laborcita1620191992
Raton1219941994
Horse Spgs1120251975
Mountainair1120231992
Pep1020241998
Aztec919891988
Gage820251974
Dulce820252000
La Plata 2820162014
Wagon Mound719781970
Angel Fire720021992
Maxwell720251996
Laborcita 2720252022
Grenville620251968
Pecos620171977

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.