BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in New Mexico has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.40.068.8
20264.40.008.7
20274.30.008.7
20284.20.008.6
20294.20.008.6

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Barn Swallow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesilla11220001992
Tucumcari4919751975
San Antonio3819771974
Farmington3719871975
Cooley Lake2420241968
Capulin2019941993
Clovis1820241993
La Plata1820131990
Laborcita 21720242022
Valencia1619971968
Laborcita1620191992
Raton1219941994
Mountainair1120231992
Pep1020241998
Horse Spgs920241975
Pastura920191993
Aztec919891988
La Plata 2820162014
Grenville720241968
Wagon Mound719781970
Angel Fire720021992
Rosebud720241994
Pecos620171977
Variadero620191994
Farley520241979

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.