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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in West Virginia has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in West Virginia is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.9–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.9–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in West Virginia is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.9–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.217
2027127.117
2028127.117
2029127.017
2030126.917

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Barn Swallow in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arlee6619791966
Spencer5820241986
Mcdonald3320231987
Pt Pleasant3120251973
Paradise3120251966
Meadland2920251997
Green Bank2820251977
Rockport2420251966
Josephs Mill2420241993
Moundsville2320251972
Yellow Spg2120231972
Washburn2020221974
Welch1920251980
Ruthbelle1820251975
Pedro1720251979
Mt Storm1719751966
Rio1619951974
Lost River1620251996
Clendenin1520251979
Valley Head1520251966
Cedarville1520231982
Slate1520251980
Ghent1420251978
Hubbardstown1420251966
Hix1320251970

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.