BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in West Virginia has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in West Virginia is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in West Virginia is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.317
2026127.217
2027127.217
2028127.117
2029127.017

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Barn Swallow in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arlee6619791966
Clendenin4220241979
Welch4020231980
Hix3820241970
Spencer3620231986
Mcdonald3320231987
Bebee3120241972
Ruthbelle2620241975
Josephs Mill2420241993
Hanover2220241980
Yellow Spg2120231972
Slate2020241980
Washburn2020221974
Moundsville1920241972
Smithfield1920241993
Mt Storm1719751966
Green Bank1620241977
Rio1619951974
Cedarville1520231982
Meadland1220241997
Lost River1220231996
Pedro1120241979
Ghent1120241978
Pt Pleasant1120231973
Berryburg1119961975

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.