BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Wisconsin has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 13–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 13–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191325
2027191325
2028191325
2029191325
2030191325

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N Freedom5720251966
Omro5520011966
Trempealeau5420251966
Eden5320251966
Kiel4820251998
Manitowoc4720241966
Fall River4420251966
Mukwonago4420041998
Pt Washingtn4320241966
Omro 24320252002
Highland4120251998
Casco4020251966
Rolling Grnd3920251966
Beloit3920251998
Newburg Crns3720251966
Hazel Green3720251966
Beaver Dam3520231966
Cochrane3420251966
Paris3420251966
Prairie Du Chien3320251998
N Andover3220251967
Wiota3120251966
Mukwonago 23120252005
Hebron3020251966
Grimms3020211998

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.