BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Wisconsin has held roughly steady: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 19 (95% range 13–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 19 (95% range 13–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191325
2026191325
2027191325
2028191325
2029191325

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kiel9320221998
Clintonville7020241967
Eden5620241966
Omro5520011966
Holland5420241998
Mukwonago 25320242005
Pardeeville5020241967
Hazel Green5020241966
Manitowoc4720241966
Gresham4520241998
Mukwonago4420041998
N Freedom4320241966
Pt Washingtn4320241966
Fall River4220241966
Beloit4220241998
Trempealeau4120241966
New Lisbon3720241967
Hudson3620241966
N Andover3620241967
Beaver Dam3520231966
Omro 23520242002
Hebron3420241966
Rolling Pr3320241966
Paris3220241966
Newburg Crns3120241966

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.