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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Oklahoma has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 8.7–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.7–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 8.7–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026169.122
2027159.022
2028158.922
2029158.822
2030158.722

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colony5919951995
Grimes4820251967
Jet4720241992
Arapaho4620141992
Cooperton3920251992
Beaver3820181979
Wakita3720161967
Pocola3520161992
Goodwater3420211992
Cashion3420241992
Peoria2820231967
Elgin2820161994
Clear Lake2720251992
Sickles2620211992
Hunter2620241992
Douglas2220221967
Welch2120251967
Chester2119881967
Barnsdall2019771967
Phillips1920251968
Ft Sill East1919941994
Ardmore1820251967
Wainwright1820131992
Eagle City1720081967
Hooker1720251992

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.