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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Missouri has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-28%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 15–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 15–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221528
2027221528
2028211528
2029211528
2030211528

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Syracuse8820241969
Filley8220251975
Rockingham6720251969
Emden5620242017
Cole Camp5419901971
Akers5120251967
Lucerne4920252016
Queen City4620222017
Mcfall4420251994
New Point4420251994
Gildehouse4419891978
Sni Mills4319901967
Luray4220252015
Trenton4120251967
Cp Girardeau3720251967
Milford3720252015
Cascade3620251967
Norborne3620232006
Millwood3520251999
Laclede3520251994
Centertown3420251973
Eugene3420252013
Blodgett3420252013
Whitewater3320251996
Sedalia3220251991

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.