BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Kentucky has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 6.9–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.9–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 6.9–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026188.328
2027188.028
2028187.628
2029177.327
2030176.927

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plum6320251966
Glencoe6020221966
Hustonville5820251966
Levee4819821966
Boxville4819831966
Sewell Shop4720251966
Cumberlnd Gp4120181966
Johnsonville4120211966
Lovelacevile3820251967
Cedar Grove3720251966
Kings Mtn3720251966
Joy3620231966
Kehoe3619921966
Iron Bridge3519981966
Demunbruns3520211966
Dixie3220191967
Bays Fork3120191999
Merrimac2820241967
Hodgenville2620031967
Shiloh2420251967
Sulphur Lick2420241966
Canton2320251967
Gatewood2320191966
Levee 22320192007
Keysburg2020251968

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.