BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Kentucky has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Kentucky is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 7.0–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Kentucky is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 7.0–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025198.429
2026188.128
2027187.728
2028177.428
2029177.027

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glencoe6020221966
Plum5020241966
Levee4819821966
Boxville4819831966
Cumberlnd Gp4120181966
Johnsonville4120211966
Joy3620231966
Kehoe3619921966
Iron Bridge3519981966
Demunbruns3520211966
Hustonville3420241966
Dixie3220191967
Sewell Shop3120231966
Bays Fork3120191999
Keysburg3020241968
Merrimac2820241967
Lovelacevile2720241967
Hodgenville2620031967
Sulphur Lick2420241966
Riverqueen2320242007
Gatewood2320191966
Morganfield2320242022
Levee 22320192007
Kings Mtn2120241966
Pleasurevill2120241979

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.