Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Barn Swallow Population Trend in Alaska
Barn Swallow in Alaska has collapsed: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
-99%Since 1973
22Routes In State
45Years
Notable Barn Swallow Trends in Alaska
long arc declinecomputed index
Barn Swallow has collapsed in Alaska: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2711.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.995% range
±2711.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.9 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.9 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.9 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.9 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.9 |
Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Alaska
| Wrangell (Short) | 11 | 1984 | 1984 |
| Ketchikan | 7 | 2021 | 1971 |
| Sitka (Short) | 7 | 1992 | 1985 |
| Cordova | 5 | 2019 | 1983 |
| Juneau Alt | 4 | 1986 | 1984 |
| Skagway | 4 | 2022 | 1993 |
| Slana | 3 | 2022 | 1994 |
| Stikine River | 2 | 2018 | 1999 |
| Juneau | 2 | 2024 | 1983 |
| Zimovia Strt | 2 | 2023 | 1989 |
| Yakutat | 2 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Craig | 1 | 1994 | 1994 |
| Haines | 1 | 2008 | 1972 |
| Whale Pass | 1 | 2008 | 2008 |
| Zarembo | 1 | 1994 | 1994 |
| Hyder | 1 | 2008 | 1994 |
| Yakutat (Short) | 1 | 1984 | 1984 |
| Harlequin L. | 1 | 1994 | 1994 |
| Copper River | 1 | 1997 | 1997 |
| Mitkof Isle | 1 | 2008 | 2008 |
| Sitka | 1 | 2015 | 1993 |
| Thorne Bay | 1 | 2012 | 1990 |
Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.