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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Louisiana has surged: up 50× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

50×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Louisiana: up 50× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Louisiana is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 13–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Louisiana is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 13–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201229
2026211229
2027211230
2028211330
2029221330

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Keystone11620131968
Ltl Chenier 29620112010
Ltl Chenier7920241986
Sabine Nwr 25120172009
Port Allen4720242000
Forked Island4520242008
Mayflower4420241970
Derry4419891967
Forked Island 24420112010
Easton4319901967
Sabine Nwr4120081989
Carterville4019921992
Oakdale3719941991
Transylvania3220221998
Berwick2720181987
Maurice2620241992
Cypress2519871971
Derry 22520241990
Esther2420241988
Grand Isle2420192010
Lake Cove2420182008
Grayson2320212005
Kraemer2120241998
Natchitoches2019911987
Turkey Creek2019991998

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.