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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Kansas has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Kansas is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 11–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Kansas is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 11–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191227
2027191226
2028191226
2029191226
2030191126

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coats8420251967
Trading Post6220252000
Kanopolis5220251967
Pittsburg5020212000
Severance4820252000
Coldwater4520221969
Albert4420251967
Lincolnville3820242002
Wreford3320241967
Solomon3320251982
Dalton3220251968
Berwet3220252000
Hodges3120142000
Jamestown2920252000
Beloit2820032000
Gray2720191967
Ash Valley2720192000
Chapman2619811967
Thrall2319701967
Minneapolis2320191967
Morehead2320252000
Hanover2220251969
Humboldt2020221968
Olathe2020211967
Jewell2020051967

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.