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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Kansas has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Kansas is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 11–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Kansas is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 11–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191227
2026191226
2027191226
2028191126
2029191126

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert6420241967
Pittsburg5020212000
Coldwater4520221969
Albert3820241967
Lincolnville3820242002
Ellinor3520241967
Bucyrus3520242022
Wreford3320241967
Plymell3320242000
Hodges3120142000
Beloit2820032000
Kanopolis2720241967
Gray2720191967
Hanover2720231969
Ash Valley2720192000
Chapman2619811967
Dalton2420241968
Jamestown2420242000
Solomon2420191982
Thrall2319701967
Minneapolis2320191967
Trading Post2320242000
Jewell 22320242006
Humboldt2020221968
Olathe2020211967

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.