BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Virginia has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Virginia is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 1.9–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Virginia is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 1.9–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.32.716
20279.12.516
20288.92.316
20298.72.115
20308.51.915

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville11120251966
Taylorstown10120101967
Rural Retrt5820251982
Backbay4319741966
Blacksburg3920251988
Marion3519821976
Carters Brdg3420141966
Jerome2720251971
Star Tannery2520251977
David2420131968
Newbern2319821968
Hebron2220221981
Colonial Pky2219971992
Tryme2020251975
Newsoms2020241968
Clinchport1819781967
Quinby1720251966
Cornland1720141975
Great Falls1619781966
Newville1620241988
Big Island1420251968
Elamsville1420161978
Brodnax1420251973
Edinburg1320241968
Concord1320241967

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.