BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Alabama

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Alabama has surged: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+176%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Alabama: up 176% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Alabama is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 10–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Alabama is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 10–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025199.629
2026199.729
2027199.829
2028199.929
2029191029

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Swaim4120241966
Woodville3720241994
Birmingham3519951975
Stevenson3220241996
Drummond3220242001
Howard3020241970
Liberty3020221968
Childersburg3019991985
Fairview2920241989
Summitt2819811966
Mt Olive2720241966
Linden2620231973
Grangeburg2620241976
Choccolocco2620241984
Wedowee2620231996
Brantley2520241980
Whitehall2520241983
Talladega2520241996
Brundidge2420211980
Elamville2420241984
Rock Chapel2420241995
Calebee2320241993
Greensport2220241969
Dearmanville2119831968
Cottonton2120241977

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.