BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Alabama

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Alabama has surged: up 182% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+182%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Alabama: up 182% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Alabama is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 9.9–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.9–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Alabama is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 9.9–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026199.528
2027199.628
2028199.729
2029199.829
2030199.929

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Swaim12120251966
Harrell7520251973
Choccolocco3820251984
Woodville3720241994
Birmingham3519951975
Stevenson3220241996
Drummond3220242001
Liberty3020221968
Childersburg3019991985
Summitt2819811966
Bay Minette2720251996
Linden2620231973
Grangeburg2620241976
Wedowee2620231996
Whitehall2520251983
Brundidge2420211980
Blocton2420251969
Rock Chapel2420241995
Talladega2320251996
Castleberry2220251978
Carrollton2220251993
Dearmanville2119831968
Alabama Pt2120031966
Greensboro2020251970
Wallsboro2020251980

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.