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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Mississippi has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Mississippi: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Mississippi is projected to rise about 110% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 7.0–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Mississippi is projected to rise about 110% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 7.0–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025176.827
2026176.927
2027176.927
2028177.027
2029177.027

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dundee5820221970
Cybur3420191983
Columbia3320181975
Leaf River3320132008
Commerce3119931966
Olive Branch2720011966
Macon2720241966
Eagle Lake2720242012
Tchula2519751970
Amite River2520132008
Tupelo2320221966
Trace Attala2320192016
Necaise2320221985
Vicksburg Np2220212016
Monticello1920172007
Winterville1920112009
Mt Carmel1720161974
Panther Swamp Nwr1620182016
Isola1520221972
Lucien1420131974
Forest1420241972
Dahomey Nwr1420242011
Tchula 31320241995
Fayette1220081968
De Soto1220192008

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.