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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Mississippi has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has risen sharply in Mississippi: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Mississippi is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 6.6–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Mississippi is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 6.6–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026166.427
2027176.527
2028176.527
2029176.627
2030176.627

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dundee5820221970
Cybur3420191983
Columbia3320181975
Leaf River3320132008
Lake3220251966
Macon3220251966
Commerce3119931966
Olive Branch2720011966
Tchula2519751970
Amite River2520132008
Benton2420251972
Tupelo2320221966
Trace Attala2320192016
Necaise2320221985
Vicksburg Np2220212016
Eagle Lake2020252012
Monticello1920172007
Winterville1920112009
Mt Carmel1720161974
Panther Swamp Nwr1620182016
Isola1520221972
Lucien1420131974
Tchula 31420251995
Star1320252016
Fayette1220081968

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.