BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in New York has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in New York. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in New York is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in New York is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026126.218
2027125.918
2028125.717
2029115.417
2030115.217

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Barn Swallow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E Youngstown15220251966
Durham9619761966
Romulus9320001968
Macdougall7220251969
Warwick6019741968
Churchville4820251968
Dryden4020251966
Nashville3920181967
Westbrookvle3620191966
West Bangor3519991990
Oxford3319761967
Branchport3220241967
Penfield2920251968
Orleans2820251967
Mt Hope2720101967
Fowler2419681966
Swain2320071967
Cayuga2220251969
Cattaraugus2220191967
Alder Creek2220041968
Harris Hill2220252005
N Victory 22120211978
Vestal Ctr2020191966
St Johnsburg2020251967
Medusa1920241968

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.