BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in New York has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barn Swallow in New York. See the full index history below.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in New York is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in New York is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.1–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025126.118
2026125.917
2027115.617
2028115.317
2029115.117

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Barn Swallow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E Youngstown14320231966
Durham9619761966
Romulus9320001968
Macdougall6320241969
Churchville6320241968
Warwick6019741968
Nashville3920181967
Naples3920241966
Westbrookvle3620191966
Orleans3620241967
Penfield3620241968
West Bangor3519991990
Oxford3319761967
Branchport3220241967
Sheridan2920241966
Philadelphia2820241980
Mt Hope2720101967
S Berne 22720242014
St Johnsburg2420241967
Fowler2419681966
Dryden2320241966
Swain2320071967
Cattaraugus2220191967
Byron2220241967
Cicero Ctr2220241966

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.