BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Florida has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

14×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Florida: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Florida is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Florida is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.34.2
20262.81.44.3
20272.81.44.3
20282.91.44.3
20292.91.54.4

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale2920111987
Miller Xrds2620191987
Indiantown 22020242018
New Hope1820112009
Blountstown1720241972
Miccosukee1320231996
Blackwater1320241988
Homestead1120232016
Mossy Head920111988
Romeo920241995
Dowling Park920231987
Santa Rosa820031987
Cross City820231988
Betts720231995
Pinetta720231989
Oak Grove620161986
Micanopy519911991
Childs520041972
Indiantown520101969
Citrus Park520172016
Doctors Inlet 2520152014
Port St Joe420141971
Covington420091970
Alligator Pt420241989
Sanderson320112007

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.