BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Florida has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

14×Since 1969
94Routes In State
57Years

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in Florida

long arc increasecomputed index

Barn Swallow has surged in Florida: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Florida is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2029
2.9Projected 2029 index
1.5–4.495% range
±88.4%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.81.34.2
20262.81.44.3
20272.81.44.3
20282.91.44.3
20292.91.54.4

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Florida.
Lovedale2920111987
Miller Xrds2620191987
Indiantown 22020242018
New Hope1820112009
Blountstown1720241972
Miccosukee1320231996
Blackwater1320241988
Homestead1120232016
Mossy Head920111988
Romeo920241995
Dowling Park920231987
Santa Rosa820031987
Cross City820231988
Betts720231995
Pinetta720231989
Oak Grove620161986
Micanopy519911991
Childs520041972
Indiantown520101969
Citrus Park520172016
Doctors Inlet 2520152014
Port St Joe420141971
Covington420091970
Alligator Pt420241989
Sanderson320112007

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.