BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Texas has surged: up 281% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+281%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
242Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Texas: up 281% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 4.6–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 4.6–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025154.525
2026154.525
2027154.625
2028154.625
2029154.625

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oyster Lake27820241995
Progreso23520111994
Chandler15820041969
Pidcoke 211420242018
Padre Island Pais10520152015
Oakwood9319951967
Miami7220241975
Rhome6220241967
Oak Grove5519991969
Dallas5520241975
Miller Grove5420241967
Floydada5420241981
San Ygnacio4919851977
Thornton 24920101985
Manor4820242012
Gambill Ref.4720241995
Hondo4520241971
Hobson4120241978
Neches Bith3920172016
Bayside3820101994
Carlos3720241993
Dougherty3720241995
Walburg3620241980
Thornton3419841968
Cayuga3120241996

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.