BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Barn Swallow in Texas has surged: up 298% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+298%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
244Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Barn Swallow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barn Swallow has surged in Texas: up 298% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barn Swallow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 4.3–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barn Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 4.3–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026144.224
2027144.324
2028144.324
2029144.324
2030144.324

Barn Swallow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Barn Swallow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Progreso23520111994
Chandler15820041969
Padre Island Pais10520152015
Oakwood9319951967
Manor 27420252025
Dallas5620251975
Oak Grove5519991969
Gambill Ref.5120251995
San Ygnacio4919851977
Thornton 24920101985
Manor4820242012
Massey Lake4420251970
Miami4320251975
Chinquapin4120252000
Graford3920251974
Neches Bith3920172016
Bayside3820101994
Walburg3620251980
Thornton3419841968
Pantex3320251976
Three Rivers3220251994
Selden3020251983
Twichell3020251997
Dike2820251969
Floydada2620251981

Barn Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.