BirdAnalyst
Guild · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Aerial Insectivores In Idaho

All statesIdaho

22 species in this guild. As a group they are -40%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Aerial insectivores as a group have declined in Idaho, down 40% since 1970.

Aerial Insectivores In Idaho Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Idaho is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Idaho is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.104.4
20262.20.044.3
20272.10.004.3
20282.10.004.2
20292.00.004.2

Member Species In Idaho

Aerial insectivores species in Idaho.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Ash-throated FlycatcherTyrannidae-86%
Common PoorwillCaprimulgidae-79%
Vaux's SwiftApodidae-76%
Barn SwallowHirundinidae-71%
Black SwiftApodidae-68%
Bank SwallowHirundinidae-63%
Eastern KingbirdTyrannidae-62%
Violet-green SwallowHirundinidae-32%
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae-16%
White-throated SwiftApodidae+2%
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae+40%
Say's PhoebeTyrannidae+54%
Hammond's FlycatcherTyrannidae+61%
Dusky FlycatcherTyrannidae+62%
Western Wood-PeweeTyrannidae+62%
Tree SwallowHirundinidae+68%
Olive-sided FlycatcherTyrannidae+76%
Willow FlycatcherTyrannidae+112%
Western KingbirdTyrannidae+157%
Common NighthawkCaprimulgidae+162%
Least FlycatcherTyrannidae+170%
Gray FlycatcherTyrannidae+355%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.