BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Idaho

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Idaho has surged: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+162%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in Idaho: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Idaho is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.25–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Idaho is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.25–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.213.3
20261.80.223.3
20271.80.233.3
20281.80.243.3
20291.80.253.3

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Twin Buttes1620241985
Dubois520121978
Circular Bu520241986
Crane Creek520191988
Dougal Res520211988
Blacks Creek420171969
Joel420241989
Picabo420211989
Preston420081989
Triangle320241985
Hot Spring320141988
Naples220221972
Baker220211974
Craters220061984
Springfield220181970
Ririe220131971
Glenns Ferry219861968
Acequia220121979
Cobalt220151989
Yellow Pine220111994
Iron Springs220241989
Cedar Hill220241989
Cabarton219901990
Blackft Res120091986
Mivoden120061977

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.