BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Washington

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Washington has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+101%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in Washington: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Washington is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.39–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Washington is projected to rise about 97% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.39–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.353.0
20261.70.363.0
20271.70.383.0
20281.70.393.1
20291.70.393.1

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hanford Site5119961988
Columbia Nwr2320221992
Horn Rapids1320242005
Arid Land Er1119961988
Harrington820121972
Pomona819991998
Keller620051970
Mercer620191978
Mesa620081994
Snowden520241971
Ellensburg520241982
Mt Rainier519931990
Omak Creek520241996
Lake Chelan520181989
Kendall420241986
Nighthawk420221992
Raymond420211994
Ardenvoir319871968
Connell320111971
Leavenworth320231985
Ewan320191985
Curlew320171994
Harwood319971994
Hatton319941993
Moses Coulee320231993

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.