BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-66%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in New Mexico is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in New Mexico is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.30.006.7
20263.20.006.6
20273.10.006.5
20283.00.006.5
20292.90.006.4

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Claunch 25020242001
Roswell2120231968
Caprock2020241977
Lakewood1620211980
Pep1320241992
Laborcita1120191992
Raton919941994
Magdalena920241997
La Cienega720221968
Gage720241970
Salt Lake720011999
Carrizozo620241968
Farley520241979
Grenville520241968
Claunch520001977
Hobbs520241994
Angel Fire 2520242005
Torreon420211975
Wagon Mound419781970
Floyd420241968
Maljamar419751975
Sedan420241994
Gallinas420211992
Clovis420241993
Sabinoso420211980

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.