BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-60%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in New Mexico is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in New Mexico is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.30.006.7
20273.20.006.7
20283.20.006.6
20293.10.006.5
20303.00.006.4

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Claunch 23920252001
Roswell1920251968
Lakewood1620211980
Bitter Lake1520251994
Cooley Lake1320251968
Pep1320241992
Floyd1120251968
Laborcita1120191992
Raton919941994
La Cienega720221968
Rosebud720251994
Salt Lake720011999
Farley520251979
Claunch520001977
Sedan520251994
Angel Fire 2520242005
Wagon Mound419781970
Maljamar419751975
Clovis420241993
Sabinoso420211980
Escondida420242000
Mt. Taylor 2420242015
Nageesi320251968
Cebolla320231973
Ojo Sarco320251968

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.