BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Maine

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Maine has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-54%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Maine: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Maine is projected to fall about 95% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-95%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±171%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Maine is projected to fall about 95% by 2028 — from 0.13 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.26
20250.020.000.25
20260.010.000.25
20270.010.000.24
20280.010.000.24

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Topsfield619921990
Deblois419731966
Hartford319811981
Grnd Lk Strm319921992
Hudson219781978
Horse Mtn219851985
Searsport220222010
Northfield 2120172014
Biddeford119941992
Kittery Pt120231972
Newcastle119751975
Bethel120032003
Greenwood119721972
Bowdoin Ctr119751975
Manchester119811981
Harmony120221983
Heron Lake119971985
Eastbrook120231973
Hancock119991972
Aurora119821982
Cooper120191975
Northfield119801980
Charleston120191994
Greenville119721972
Winn119791979

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.