BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in New York has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in New York. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.020.000.04
20230.020.000.04
20240.020.000.04
20250.020.000.04
20260.020.000.04

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Corbettsvile220172017
Somers119751975
Highland119861968
Westbrookvle119811981
Austerlitz119861983
Duanesburg119871987
Laurens119701970
Lisle119701967
Phillips Cr119981998
Canadice L119731973
Hamburg120131980
Centerville119891989
Cherry Hill119681968
St Johnsburg119891989
E Youngstown119921971
Salem120212021
North Easton119871969
Warrensburg119781969
Ogdensburg119891980
Willsboro119951995
Sciota119771969

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.