BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Arizona has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-84%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has collapsed in Arizona: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Arizona is projected to fall about 94% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-94%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Arizona is projected to fall about 94% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.001.4
20260.100.001.3
20270.070.001.3
20280.040.001.3
20290.010.001.3

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rose Wells1419781968
Toroweap1420191994
Zeniff1219841968
Mormon Lake1119751968
Peña Blanca819841975
Sawmill720141988
Sunizona519861969
Hunt420061968
Happy Jack420241985
Mt Trumbull219921974
Round Rock219681968
Yampai219761969
Flagstaff220221988
Blue219911985
Maine220171993
Skull Valley220231996
Alpine220172017
Mcneal220241993
Navajo Trail220241995
Tsaile220191993
House Rock120171968
Black Mesa119951989
Rucker120022002
Oraibi119991999
Prescott120141977

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.