BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Alabama

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Alabama has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has collapsed in Alabama: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Alabama is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±159.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Alabama is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.41
20260.000.000.41
20270.000.000.41
20280.000.000.41
20290.000.000.41

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alabama Pt 2720192004
Alabama Pt620021966
Elberta420221986
Newton319951995
Bay Minette320241996
Chacaloochee Bay320112011
Valhermoso Spgs219671967
Linden219911968
Millry219701970
Dauphin Is219881966
Foley219831966
Blocton220191969
Escatawpa220231984
Fairview220172017
Citronelle220231997
Helicon220102000
St Florian119881968
Hillsboro119871966
Trade120141998
Summitt119721972
Pine Grove119951968
Latham 2120242005
Millerville119711971
Sunny Eve119981983
Dauphin Is 2120171992

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.