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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Texas has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
241Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Texas: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.15–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.15–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.00.827.1
20273.80.656.9
20283.60.486.8
20293.50.326.6
20303.30.156.4

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 25520252010
Loyola Beach4620091994
E Georgetown3519791967
Bayside 23220041997
Manor3120242012
Progreso2920111994
Lakeview2920251995
Petronila2720251968
Indianola2720241967
Skellytown2520251994
Weinert2319941971
Wall2320221994
Bayside 32220252005
Raymondville2120251970
Williams1820251996
Childress1720251969
Henrietta1620221968
Creedmore1620141994
Heidelberg1620242013
Pear Valley1520251969
Haskell1520251995
Manor 21520252025
Town Bluff1419901967
Booker1420251975
Oyster Lake1420251995

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.