BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Texas has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
240Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Texas: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Texas is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.32–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Texas is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.32–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.20.997.3
20264.00.827.2
20273.80.657.0
20283.70.496.8
20293.50.326.6

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach4620091994
Loyola Beach 24220242010
Lag Atascosa3820241969
Raymondville3620241970
E Georgetown3519791967
Skellytown3420241994
Bayside 23220041997
Manor3120242012
Petronila3020241968
Progreso2920111994
Bayside 32820242005
Indianola2720241967
Lakeview2520241995
Marfa2420232004
Weinert2319941971
Wall2320221994
Pear Valley1920241969
Pumpville1720242006
Henrietta1620221968
Booker1620241975
Creedmore1620141994
Heidelberg1620242013
Lamesa1520241974
Williams1520241996
Town Bluff1419901967

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.