BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Pennsylvania has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-73%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±205.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±205.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±205.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.010.000.08
20240.010.000.08
20250.010.000.08
20260.000.000.08
20270.000.000.08

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Munson419791979
Ridgway319961988
Kittanning320041974
Sigel219971997
Greentown219891971
Virginia219711971
Hometown219981998
Aspers219811970
Labott219761976
Slippery Rk119891986
Clover119891989
Ferris Crnrs119961996
Pottersdale119951984
Jeannette119981981
Honesdale119741974
Susquehanna119761971
Beaver120141969
Plesant Grov120222022
Parkwood119811981
Brick Tavern119921992
Patton119811981
Bald Eagle120012001
Waterstreet119791968
Shrewsbury119961996
Clear Spring119821974

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.