BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Arkansas is projected to fall about 97% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Arkansas is projected to fall about 97% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.42
20260.040.000.41
20270.040.000.40
20280.030.000.40
20290.020.000.39

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dell1820242010
Ashdown620131967
Whitton419851985
Stark419701968
Wilson320242001
South Bend220061969
Poyen219861970
Harrisburg219881979
Saffell220031979
Coal Hill220211986
Maynard219941967
Old Milo119961967
Eudora119731973
Locust Bayou120161974
Stamps120221969
Hope120211967
Hughes119901976
West Tyler119821967
Magazine Mtn120122011
Hollywood120071975
Augusta119921970
Massard120221967
Zion120111970
Fulton120001967
Compton120181970

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.