BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Florida has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Florida: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Florida is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Florida is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.004.7
20261.80.004.5
20271.60.004.4
20281.40.004.2
20291.30.004.0

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kendall6019911987
Citrus3820242010
Broward3419731966
Shawano 23420112004
Clewiston2520232015
Ocala2320241987
Dowling Park2120231987
Alturas1919861971
Webb1620241990
St Lucie1420241987
Myakka Head1320111966
Shawano1320021987
Homestead1220241988
Pinelands1220241990
Broad Branch1120241967
Lake Buffum1120241987
Goethe1120242010
Hildreth920091987
Alligator Pt920241987
Vero Beach920121993
Boca Raton819941968
Santa Rosa820031987
Nobleton820171987
Babcock Rnch819901988
Chassahowitz820241997

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.