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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Tennessee has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Common Nighthawk Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has collapsed in Tennessee: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±221%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±221%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±221%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.21
20250.000.000.21
20260.000.000.21
20270.000.000.21
20280.000.000.21

Common Nighthawk Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Bank1319781966
Moscow220121966
Big Sandy219811966
Silerton219801968
Belotes Bend219921966
Bradyville220141966
Lovell220022002
Tiptonville120122006
Brownsville120191966
Tibbs120232006
Whiteville119921992
Mansfield119751975
Sweetlips119771966
Trenton120061969
Humboldt120101966
Pond Creek119851985
Indian Mound119881982
Collinwood119941994
Wrigley119741974
Lewis Forest119761967
Petersburg120001984
Peytonsville119861971
Tullahoma120041967
Silver Pt119831970
Climer120041967

Common Nighthawk Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.